What a Trump Presidency May Mean for UK Commercial Energy Prices

The re-election of President Donald Trump holds notable influence over global energy markets, particularly for the United Kingdom. US oil and gas account for over 13 million metric tonnes of UK imports, making the United States the second-largest foreign energy supplier to the UK.

Trump's policies, which emphasise bolstering fossil fuel production, deregulating the energy sector, and withdrawing from international climate commitments, are expected to have both direct and indirect effects on the UK's energy landscape.

President Trump has declared a national energy emergency to enhance US oil and gas production, aiming to lower domestic energy prices and increase exports. This strategy includes accelerating permits for energy projects and reversing restrictions on energy exploration in areas such as Alaska. These measures could lead to a significant surge in US fossil fuel output, affecting global energy prices.

For the UK, which imports a considerable portion of its energy, lower global prices could reduce energy costs for consumers and businesses. Increased US production could result in a more competitive market, creating potential savings for commercial energy users.

Shift in LNG Exports

The US has been expanding its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe. An increase in US LNG exports could enhance energy security for the UK and Europe by diversifying supply sources and reducing reliance on Russian gas. Michael Lewis, CEO of Uniper, a German utility company, noted that increased US LNG exports to Europe would help stabilise the market and lower prices.

This shift could provide significant benefits to the UK’s energy supply chain and pricing structure.

US policy shifts regarding renewable energy sources may render such sources less competitive in terms of price, potentially slowing the UK's transition to cleaner energy. Trump's decision to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement signals a departure from coordinated global efforts to combat climate change. This move may lead to a divergence in climate policies between the US and the UK, potentially affecting international climate initiatives and the global carbon market.

The UK's commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 could face challenges if major economies like the US prioritise fossil fuel development over renewable energy. Additionally, a focus on fossil fuels and the rollback of environmental regulations may influence global investment trends, potentially diverting funding away from renewable energy projects. The UK, a leader in offshore wind and other renewable technologies, may encounter increased competition for investment and technological advancements.

If global fossil fuel prices decline, the economic competitiveness of renewable energy sources in the UK could also be adversely affected, potentially slowing progress toward the country’s green energy goals.

President Trump's energy policies are likely to have multifaceted effects on the UK's energy markets. While increased US fossil fuel production could lead to lower energy prices and enhanced energy security through diversified LNG supplies, it may also pose challenges to the UK's renewable energy ambitions and climate commitments. The UK will need to navigate these developments carefully to balance energy affordability, security, and sustainability.

Sources:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/381963/crude-oil-and-natural-gas-import-origin-countries-to-united-kingdom-

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-energy-dominance-oil-gas-prices-taxes-2025-1?utm_source

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/more-us-lng-exports-europe-will-help-market-uniper-ceo-says-2025-01-22/?utm_source

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/24/paris-climate-agreement-withdrawal-trump-world-response-us?utm_source